Posted "average yields" for Dar es Salaam sub-markets are widely circulated and rarely evidence-based. This article explains what a credible yield figure requires, why most published numbers do not survive scrutiny, and what we do instead.
Where the published numbers come from
Most "average yield" figures in circulation start as a gross rent divided by an asking price, applied to a handful of assets, and then attached to a sub-market name. They inherit the weaknesses of the inputs: asking prices are not transactions, small samples are not statistically meaningful, and one sub-market can contain very different assets.
A headline number can be quoted by a vendor, a buyer, and a bank for three different purposes. None of them is an estimate of what your specific asset will return.
Why posted yields typically overstate reality
Gross rent is not net return. Vacancy between tenancies, operating costs (rates, security, management, maintenance, insurance), and deferred capital expenditure all sit between a headline figure and what an owner actually receives.
Add the illiquidity of single-asset sales and the cost and tenor of financing, and the spread between a posted average and a transacted outcome widens further. The number tells you what a market feels like, not what an asset makes.
What a credible yield analysis actually requires
A defensible figure starts with comparable transactions, not listings; verified tenancy data with lease terms and roll dates; realistic operating costs and vacancy assumptions; the financing terms available for that asset type; confirmed title, encumbrances, and planning status; and a stated hold period and exit scenario.
Any figure that skips these inputs is a headline, not an estimate — regardless of how specific its decimals are.
Why it matters to a buyer
Anchoring on the wrong figure misallocates capital and misprices exit risk. A buyer who purchases against an inflated average discovers the gap between the model and the property after close, when it is expensive.
The buyer who underwrites from verified evidence finishes in a different position: on price, on structure, and on the capacity to hold through a weak patch in the market.
What we publish, and what we don't
We do not publish yield tables, and we removed unverified sub-market benchmarks from our property pages when we could not source them. When we underwrite an acquisition we evaluate location, asset type, acquisition price, rental assumptions, operating costs, financing, title, transaction terms, and exit route — with documented evidence, asset by asset.
A return range is presented only after inspection and verification. It is a working hypothesis, not a published market statistic.
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